This TTA request is entitled "Merging Counter-Terrorism Targeting Methodology and Place-Based Crime Project." It utilizes background and details of a methodology developed at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL). This methodology has shown applicability to modeling criminal events and will be demonstrated to the Detroit Police Department (DPD) using their crime events to evaluate the technology. Finally, the technology will be tested in an operational use case.
Background - The NRL has developed an advanced geospatial methodology to characterize a set of events by combining geospatial and statistical techniques to quantify “place” as a measure of spatial preference for target selection. With a model for preferred place, areas that match the original signature can be highlighted. Using this methodology, in conjunction with other analytical tools and information, one can more fully understand the events being characterized and take preemptive action. The methodology was initially designed to quantify the spatial characteristics of Improvised Explosive Devices in Iraq and was subsequently used to explore spatial-patterns of Person-Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (PBIEDs) in Israel. To further validate the methodology using richer data sets, a series of experiments were conducted in collaboration with the Cambridge, MA Police Department, using subsets of their crime data. In the course of the experiments, the methodology was applied, with some success, to commercial burglary and robbery series and street robberies. A range of literature from across disciplines were consulted when formalizing the model. The theories draw from epidemiology, criminology, and ecology. An example from criminology is situational crime prevention, which postulates an event occurs when there is an intersection among: an offender, the victim, and a place. By applying spatial-profiling techniques, “place” can be better understood, which can be applied to address ongoing and emerging crime problems.
Planned Usage in Detroit - Proof of Concept - NRL will first work with DPD to demonstrate utility of the methodology on Detroit’s data. For this, it will be necessary to have a number (approximately 5-10) of distinct groups of events (i.e., series crimes), ranging in type of crime, to analyze. The results from the proof of concept will be presented, in-person, in Detroit. Feedback will be elicited from DPD and other involved parties. Additionally, a plan for an operational case study will be developed. Refinement Using feedback from the brief of the proof of concept, NRL will refine the process and tailor the results to better meet DPD’s needs. Depending on the readiness of the technology, additional models can be generated from historical or on-going events. Ultimately, the capability will be tested for validity in an operational setting. This will entail the use of on-going events as input to the model. Results will be run and results shared with DPD in a timely manner. If the model proves to be operationally valid, resource permitting, a framework will be developed to fit the methodology in alongside DPD’s extant analytical processes, including capabilities and other sources of information.
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