Analysis Area 1: Detail the impact and cost/benefit of Iowa Department of Corrections’ (IDOC) revocation-reduction efforts on public safety by determining how violations, revocations, and offending patterns by people on community supervision changed during the pandemic and estimating the impact of that change on public safety. The cost/benefit of the revocation-reduction efforts will be assessed by working with IDOC to estimate a cost of the revocation-reduction efforts in terms of staffing, caseloads, and other related costs, then balancing those costs against the impact on public safety.
Update: CSG Justice Center staff continued conversations with a contracted research consultant and IDOC research staff to verify our understanding of the data that were shared by IDOC, finalize our research plan, and continue data analyses in anticipation of the final presentation of findings and recommendations in October. Additionally, CSG Justice Center staff concluded analysis of crime and arrest trends prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic using several public data sources. CSG Justice Center staff also built several preliminary analytic files that develop and run statistical models to analyze the relationship between revocation reductions and public safety in the case-level IDOC data, as well as disaggregate key metrics by supervision type, race and ethnicity, supervision level, and criminal history for more robust subgroup analysis. Staff also completed preliminary projections of revocations using pre-March 2020 data and compared these projections to the actual post-March 2020 decline. Finally, CSG Justice Center staff continued adding to and maintaining an internal website to compile descriptive findings, data visualizations, and pertinent notes on data interpretation, limitations, and next steps.
Analysis Area 2: Evaluate the implementation of recent IDOC efforts to reduce revocations; estimate their impact on community-based corrections officers’ ability to supervise effectively, case management activities, officer and supervisee needs, and utilization of community-based services and programs; and identify which efforts to keep (and which to adjust or modify).
Update: CSG Justice Center staff continued drafting recommendations for Iowa stakeholders to consider during the final presentation and met with IDOC administration to review the recommendations.
Analysis Area 3: Connect with criminal justice stakeholders (law enforcement, courts, community-based corrections, etc.) and review available data to better understand larger criminal justice responses and changes implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Update: CSG Justice Center staff convened another focus group with members from the Iowa Victims Advisory Council (VAC) to discuss project findings, learn about the impact of the pandemic on victims, and solicit recommendations for improving the success of clients on community-based corrections. Also, CSG Justice Center staff finalized the summary of themes across the stakeholder focus groups and began to incorporate that information into the final presentation and technical report of findings.
Research Monthly Status:
CSG Justice Center staff presented descriptive findings on revocations, violations, caseloads, officer/client contacts, hearings, client interventions/programming, and disproportionality in race and ethnicity representation for the overall community-based corrections (CBC) population in person to the Oversight Committee in Des Moines on June 2nd. Also, CSG Justice Center staff continued conversations with a contracted research consultant and IDOC research staff to verify our understanding of the data that were shared by IDOC and to develop our research plan and tasks in anticipation of the final presentation of findings and recommendations in October. Finally, CSG Justice Center staff continued adding to and maintaining an internal website to compile descriptive findings, data visualizations, and pertinent notes on data interpretation, limitations, and next steps.
Research Monthly Log:
Following the presentation, CSG Justice Center staff began exploring crime and arrest trends prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic using several public data sources in preparation for the final presentation that will focus on public safety outcomes. CSG Justice Center staff also continued to build out an analytic file that will be used to develop and run statistical models to explore the relationship between revocation reductions and public safety in the case-level IDOC data, as well as disaggregate key metrics by supervision type, race and ethnicity, risk level, supervision level, and criminal history for subgroup analysis.
During the next month, CSG Justice Center staff will finalize projections of revocation trends exclusively using pre-COVID onset data. Using ARIMA models, CSG Justice Center staff will be able to project out the trend of revocations using pre-March 2020 data and then compare this projection to the actual post-March 2020 decline. In addition, staff will continue to share data files with the research consultant and meet with IDOC to review research findings as the focus shifts from descriptive analysis to more statistically robust research exploring the relationship between revocation-reduction efforts and public safety outcomes.
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