Analysis Area 1: Analyze crime trends, including recent increases in all categories of violent crime, to help the state understand the impacts of these trends on the prison and jail populations, as well as other parts of the criminal justice system.
Background: Despite having lower crime rates than most other states, Vermont’s crime rates have been rising in recent years. Vermont’s 2017 property and violent crime rates were both second lowest nationally, but between 2007 and 2017, the violent crime rate increased 33 percent, which was the fourth-largest increase among states. Although this increase represents a modest rise in the volume of crimes (less than 400 additional reported violent crimes, driven by increasing aggravated assault and rape totals), it does indicate a concerning trend. Due to data analytic limitations, Vermont is not able to determine the extent to which these increases in violent crime may drive prison populations in the near and long term, as well as their impact on other areas, including law enforcement and victim services.
During the first working group presentation in August, CSG Justice Center staff presented national arrest and crime reporting data. While Vermont’s violent crime rate rose between 2007 and 2017, the state’s property crime rate dropped by more than a third, falling in all categories. National arrest data indicate an overall decline in drug arrests across the state, but analysis of state-level data will provide more information. Working group members noted that decriminalization of marijuana likely contributed to the decline in drug arrests and expressed interest in looking more closely at certain types of violent offenses, especially domestic violence offenses.
Update: In response to the working group’s analysis of domestic violence trends, SB 338 initially allocated $1 million in reinvestment funding to strengthen domestic violence treatment programs. However, like states across the country, the stress of the pandemic has created budget challenges and uncertainties in Vermont. As a result, the legislature decided to pass an initial three-month budget in May 2020 with the intention of reconvening in August 2020 to reevaluate the fiscal forecast and pass a more comprehensive budget that covers the remainder of the fiscal year. While this has delayed Vermont’s initial reinvestment, state leaders remain committed to revisiting reinvestment funding options when the legislature returns to session on August 25.
Analysis Area 2: Analyze and evaluate the effectiveness of community supervision to understand the causes of recidivism and technical violations that result in jail and prison admissions and identify possible alternatives to incarceration for violation sanctions.
Background: Vermont’s probation and parole populations have decreased considerably since the state first engaged in JRI in 2007. The probation population has fallen 33 percent, from 6,862 people in 2008 to 4,570 in 2018, and the parole population has decreased 20 percent, from 1,049 people in 2008 to 840 in 2018. Although Vermont has a history of stable recidivism rates (the three-year return-to-prison rate), the recidivism rate slowly and steadily increased between 2010 and 2015, rising from 43 to 52 percent, respectively, (for cohorts released between 2010 and 2015). However, with limited data analytic capabilities, the state is not currently able to identify more refined metrics of recidivism and revocations, including how many people on probation are revoked to jail or prison, for what types of violations, and for how long. SB 338, which contains the bulk of the supervision related recommendations, is currently being heard in both the House Committee on Corrections and Institutions as well as the House Committee on Judiciary. The chairs of these committees are working closely with the chair of the Senate Judiciary, with the goal of avoiding the need for a conference committee, and they were successful. Changes that have been made to the bill, primarily in the House Committee on Corrections and Institutions, were minimal.
Update: Act 148, referred to as SB 338 prior to enactment, directs the DOC to conduct further analysis and report back to the legislature on ways to strengthen the use of sanctions and incentives to ensure they reflect best practices in reducing recidivism and encouraging behavior change. This includes exploring regular data collection and analysis processes to inform policy and practice changes, as well as monitor implementation.
Analysis Area 3: Assist the state with developing a DOC population projection to inform Vermont lawmakers’ discussions on how to ensure that limited prison space is prioritized for people who are convicted of the most serious offenses.
Background: Vermont’s corrections system is unified, and DOC is responsible for all pretrial, sentenced, and supervision (probation and parole) populations. As a result of JRI and other changes in policy and practice, the state’s corrections populations have largely decreased over the past decade. Between 2008 and 2018, the state incarceration population decreased 16 percent, from 2,053 to 1,724 people. However, during the same period, the state’s pretrial population increased 30 percent.
In FY2018, Vermont’s prisons were operating at 138 percent of capacity: 1,513 people were being housed across 7 prison facilities with a total design capacity of 1,100 beds, and approximately 230 people were serving Vermont DOC sentences out of state. Vermont’s correctional facility system is aging, and five of the seven facilities are in need of either replacement or significant maintenance improvements. In particular, the DOC is struggling to deliver appropriate and costly health care services—including mental health and addiction treatment—to an incarcerated population that is spread across several small facilities.
Vermont leaders are interested in ensuring that jail and prison space remain prioritized and available for people convicted or charged with serious offenses, but without more information about trends and drivers behind crime increases and revocations to prison among people on supervision, the state cannot reliably achieve such public safety-focused corrections planning.
Update: To ensure prison beds are prioritized for those convicted of the most serious offenses, Act 148 includes significant changes to post-prison supervision focused on reducing recidivism and returns to incarceration. First, the act consolidates the number of furlough statuses from over 30 to 3 for the purpose of clarifying release expectations for people in custody, victims, and DOC staff. It also requires a formal review with expanded due process for furlough returns or revocations over 90 days. In addition, the act establishes presumptive parole for individuals with qualifying convictions who have served their minimum sentence and meet programming and behavior requirements. Qualifying convictions during initial implementation will include most nonviolent offenses prior to an eligibility expansion to more violent offenses in 2023.
These policy reforms are designed to help Vermont better manage population pressures that currently require over 200 people to be housed out of state through expensive contracts. Should the state’s incarcerated population continue to grow at its current rate, Vermont is projected to spend upwards of $43 million from FY2021 to FY2025 on out-of-state facility contracts alone. Successful implementation of Act 148 is projected to reduce the prison population by 119–130 people by the end of FY2025. This would allow DOC to then bring home a portion of those currently housed out of state, potentially averting $11–$13 million in contract costs.
The CSG Justice Center developed this five-year (FY2021–FY2025) impact projection using historical data and assumptions based on a combination of all policy options, though impacts to the sentenced incarceration population are derived primarily from establishing presumptive parole, reducing revocations to prison, and strengthening Vermont’s earned good time law. It is important to note that these projections were made in May 2020 and so may require adjustment should conditions in the state impact the underlying assumptions of the model.
Analysis Area 4: Assess the state’s response to people under correctional control with behavioral health needs, particularly opioid addiction, and identify opportunities for improving treatment access and quality.
Background: Vermont has been hard hit by the opioid crisis. Between 2007 and 2017, Vermont’s drug overdose death rates increased 115 percent, from 10.8 deaths per 100,000 residents to 23.2 per 100,000 residents. Deaths due to opioid-related overdoses are rising each year, from 56 deaths in 2011 to 110 deaths in 2018—a 96-percent increase. Understanding the prevalence of opioid use and addiction among people in Vermont’s criminal justice system and ensuring that they receive access to withdrawal management, treatment, and recovery services tailored to their unique needs is critical to ensuring that the state is able to uphold both public safety and public health.
In April, justice reinvestment behavioral health related recommendations were added to the House Committee on Corrections and Institutions’ amendment to SB 338. These recommendations require DOC to report to the Justice Reinvestment oversight committee on existing gaps and opportunities to strengthen policies and practices in identifying behavioral health needs among people within DOC, as well as sharing appropriate behavioral health information for the purposes of case planning between DOC reentry staff, DOC’s private health contractor, supervision officers and community providers. CSG Justice Center staff continued to monitor whether Vermont legislative leadership decide to appropriate Justice Reinvestment II funds, including a reentry housing appropriation, and in May, the House Corrections and Institutions Committee approved SB 338 with the transitional housing appropriation.
Update: Act 148 requires the Agency of Human Services (AHS) to report on the current process for identifying people with behavioral health needs who are incarcerated or under supervision. This information is to be used to develop policy and practice changes to improve assessment processes, care coordination, information sharing, and case management across criminal justice and behavioral health system providers.
SB 338 initially included reinvestment funding to expand reentry housing options for people on post-prison supervision. As discussed in Analysis Area 1, this allocation is delayed due to ongoing budget challenges. When the legislature reconvenes on August 25, legislators will revisit reinvestment options, including funding for reentry housing.
Analysis Area 5: Evaluate Vermont’s data systems and capacities and identify sustainable opportunities to help policymakers access information they require to make safe and critical policy decisions.
Background: When Vermont first led JRI in 2007, the CSG Justice Center provided the state with new and critical analyses of corrections populations that continue to inform decision-making related to supervision best practices and other policies. However, since then the state has encountered data challenges, including limited staff within DOC dedicated to research and data analysis and siloed data collection and reporting across state agencies that prevent a more comprehensive understanding of the whole system. The Vermont DOC has migrated to a new case management system in recent years, and while basic analytics have been sustained, it is far more difficult for DOC staff to conduct in-depth research projects that require custom case-level data exports. As a result, key public safety and system measures, such as supervision violations and revocations, remain difficult to access and analyze. As mentioned earlier, Vermont is unable to even produce a prison population projection, which would help inform policymaking and future planning. Instead, the state is only able to look back at projections that were produced during the first JRI effort, which do not reflect new pressures and realities associated with the opioid crisis and other systemic drivers.
Update: Through the implementation and ongoing monitoring of the policy reforms in Act 148, Vermont will continue to improve data collection and analysis capacity, particularly related to community supervision and behavioral health. This will not only allow state and agency leadership to assess the impact of Justice Reinvestment policy changes, but also increase Vermont’s overall ability to engage in regular, more complex data-driven policymaking efforts.
Act 148 also reconvened the Justice Reinvestment II Working Group to oversee the implementation process, as well as make additional recommendations for policy changes to improve post-prison supervision, treatment, and services. This group will receive regular updates regarding data capacity-building efforts, as well as conduct additional analyses as necessary to inform policy recommendations.
Other Updates:
After passing almost unanimously in the House and Senate, SB 338 was signed into law as Act 148 by the Governor on July 13, 2020. The final version of the bill includes the following policy reforms:
• Streamlining the furlough system. Act 148 reduces the number of furlough statuses from over 30 to 3 for the purpose of clarifying release expectations for people in custody, victims, and DOC staff. The act requires a formal review with expanded due process for furlough returns or revocations over 90 days.
• Establishing presumptive parole. Act 148 establishes a process for presumptive parole for individuals with qualifying convictions who have served their minimum sentence and meet programming and behavior requirements. Qualifying convictions during initial implementation will include most nonviolent offenses prior to an eligibility expansion to more violent offenses in 2023.
• Strengthening earned good time. Act 148 expanded the number of days earned under Vermont’s earned good time policy from 5 to 7 days.
• Analyzing the drivers of racial disproportionality. To better understand and address racial disproportionality in Vermont’s criminal justice system, the bill directs a broad group of state leaders to review existing data sources and perform an initial analysis of sentencing outcomes in relationship to race.
• Addressing gaps in behavioral health data and information sharing. Act 148 requires the AHS to report on the current process for identifying people with behavioral health needs who are incarcerated or under supervision. This information is to be used to develop policy and practice changes to improve assessment processes, care coordination, information sharing, and case management across criminal justice and behavioral health system providers.
• Improving the use of sanctions and incentives. Act 148 requires the DOC to conduct further analysis and report back to the legislature on ways to strengthen the use of sanctions and incentives to ensure they reflect best practices in reducing recidivism and encouraging behavior change. This includes exploring regular data collection and analysis processes to inform policy and practice changes, as well as monitor implementation.
To oversee these wide-ranging, cross-systems reforms, Act 148 also reestablished the bipartisan, multi-branch Justice Reinvestment II Working Group with the addition of a representative from the Vermont Parole Board. The working group is charged with monitoring implementation, regularly reporting progress to the legislature, and recommending future reinvestment priorities. In addition, the bill tasks the group with exploring several policy areas and proposing further improvements to post-prison treatment, services, and supervision in the next legislative session. This includes working closely with the DOC and AHS to identify and address needs related to behavioral health, graduated sanctions and incentives, and reentry housing. The working group is also required to examine and report out on the potential of implementing an earned good time policy for people on probation.
Act 148 initially included a reinvestment of $2 million to expand reentry programming and housing, as well as strengthen domestic violence treatment programs. However, like states across the country, there are budget challenges and uncertainties in Vermont. As a result, the legislature decided to pass an initial three-month budget in May 2020 with the intention of reconvening in August 2020 to reevaluate the fiscal forecast and pass a more comprehensive budget that covers the remainder of the fiscal year. While this has delayed Vermont’s reinvestment, state leaders remain committed to revisiting reinvestment options when the legislature returns to session on August 25.
As bill passage neared, CSG Justice Center staff began conversations with the state to explain Phase II and the process for applying to BJA for implementation technical assistance. State leaders are excited about the opportunity to receive implementation assistance and began preparing the required letter of intent with signatures from all three branches of government, as well as key agency stakeholders. It is expected that Vermont will send their request to BJA in early August. In the meantime, CSG Justice Center staff continue to transition from the Phase I to Phase II team internally, as well as engage key state and agency leaders in initial implementation planning.
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1) 7/02: Call with Executive Director (Vermont ACLU) to discuss next steps in Justice Reinvestment implementation.
2) 7/15: Call with Senator (Vermont Legislature, Working Group member) to discuss next steps in Justice Reinvestment implementation.
3) 7/16: Call with Representative (Vermont Legislature, Working Group member) to discuss next steps in Justice Reinvestment implementation.
4) 7/21: Call with Interim Commissioner (Vermont Department of Corrections) to discuss next steps in Justice Reinvestment implementation.
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