20200729-133932-03

Analysis Area 1: Analyze crime trends, including recent increases in all categories of violent crime, to help the state understand the impacts of these trends on the prison and jail populations, as well as other parts of the criminal justice system.
Background: Despite having lower crime rates than most other states, Vermont’s crime rates have been rising in recent years. Vermont’s 2017 property and violent crime rates were both second lowest nationally, but between 2007 and 2017, the violent crime rate increased 33 percent, which was the fourth-largest increase among states. Although this increase represents a modest rise in the volume of crimes (less than 400 additional reported violent crimes, driven by increasing aggravated assault and rape totals), it does indicate a concerning trend. Due to data analytic limitations, Vermont is not able to determine the extent to which these increases in violent crime may drive prison populations in the near and long term, as well as their impact on other areas, including law enforcement and victim services.

During the first working group presentation in August, CSG Justice Center staff presented national arrest and crime reporting data. While Vermont’s violent crime rate rose between 2007 and 2017, the state’s property crime rate dropped by more than a third, falling in all categories. National arrest data indicate an overall decline in drug arrests across the state, but analysis of state-level data will provide more information. Working group members noted that decriminalization of marijuana likely contributed to the decline in drug arrests and expressed interest in looking more closely at certain types of violent offenses, especially domestic violence offenses.

Update: House Corrections and Institutions Committee approved SB 338 with funding for Justice Reinvestment II, including investments for domestic violence programming. The bill will now move to House Appropriations Committee; recognizing state revenues will be significantly impacted by COVID-19-related challenges, CSG Justice Center staff is monitoring whether Vermont legislative leadership decides to appropriate Justice Reinvestment II funds. SB 338 passed in the House Corrections and Institutions and Senate Judiciary committees with appropriations attached in May; however, the House Appropriations Committee approved SB 338 without appropriations, noting that it wanted to see if CARES Act funding could supplement initial investments. The House Appropriations Committee expects to know whether CARES Act funding will make up for some of the initial investment in August or September.

Analysis Area 2: Analyze and evaluate the effectiveness of community supervision to understand the causes of recidivism and technical violations that result in jail and prison admissions and identify possible alternatives to incarceration for violation sanctions.
Background: Vermont’s probation and parole populations have decreased considerably since the state first engaged in JRI in 2007. The probation population has fallen 33 percent, from 6,862 people in 2008 to 4,570 in 2018, and the parole population has decreased 20 percent, from 1,049 people in 2008 to 840 in 2018. Although Vermont has a history of stable recidivism rates (the three-year return-to-prison rate), the recidivism rate slowly and steadily increased between 2010 and 2015, rising from 43 to 52 percent, respectively, (for cohorts released between 2010 and 2015). However, with limited data analytic capabilities, the state is not currently able to identify more refined metrics of recidivism and revocations, including how many people on probation are revoked to jail or prison, for what types of violations, and for how long. SB 338, which contains the bulk of the supervision related recommendations, is currently being heard in both the House Committee on Corrections and Institutions as well as the House Committee on Judiciary. The chairs of these committees are worked closely with the chair of the Senate Judiciary, with the goal of avoiding the need for a conference committee, and they were successful. Changes that have been made to the bill, primarily in the House Committee on Corrections and Institutions, were minimal.

Update: SB 338 passed in both the House and the Senate. The most notable amendment was the time period for furlough revocations or interruptions that prompt external judicial review. In earlier bill drafts, furlough revocations or interrupts exceeding 30 days would trigger judicial review, but after receiving testimony from DOC, the bill was amended to allow for judicial review for revocations or interrupts exceeding 90 days.

Analysis Area 3: Assist the state with developing a DOC population projection to inform Vermont lawmakers’ discussions on how to ensure that limited prison space is prioritized for people who are convicted of the most serious offenses.
Background: Vermont’s corrections system is unified, and DOC is responsible for all pretrial, sentenced, and supervision (probation and parole) populations. As a result of JRI and other changes in policy and practice, the state’s corrections populations have largely decreased over the past decade. Between 2008 and 2018, the state incarceration population decreased 16 percent, from 2,053 to 1,724 people. However, during the same period, the state’s pretrial population increased 30 percent.
In FY2018, Vermont’s prisons were operating at 138 percent of capacity: 1,513 people were being housed across 7 prison facilities with a total design capacity of 1,100 beds, and approximately 230 people were serving Vermont DOC sentences out of state. Vermont’s correctional facility system is aging, and five of the seven facilities are in need of either replacement or significant maintenance improvements. In particular, the DOC is struggling to deliver appropriate and costly health care services—including mental health and addiction treatment—to an incarcerated population that is spread across several small facilities.
Vermont leaders are interested in ensuring that jail and prison space remain prioritized and available for people convicted or charged with serious offenses, but without more information about trends and drivers behind crime increases and revocations to prison among people on supervision, the state cannot reliably achieve such public safety-focused corrections planning.

Update: SB 338 includes language that establishes presumptive parole gradually over the next couple of years. To immediately enact a presumptive parole policy would have inundated the short-staffed parole board. Graduating presumptive parole allows the parole board to expand or adjust, while maintaining Vermont’s goal to prioritize jail and prison space for people convicted or charged with serious offenses.
Analysis Area 4: Assess the state’s response to people under correctional control with behavioral health needs, particularly opioid addiction, and identify opportunities for improving treatment access and quality.
Background: Vermont has been hard hit by the opioid crisis. Between 2007 and 2017, Vermont’s drug overdose death rates increased 115 percent, from 10.8 deaths per 100,000 residents to 23.2 per 100,000 residents. Deaths due to opioid-related overdoses are rising each year, from 56 deaths in 2011 to 110 deaths in 2018—a 96-percent increase. Understanding the prevalence of opioid use and addiction among people in Vermont’s criminal justice system and ensuring that they receive access to withdrawal management, treatment, and recovery services tailored to their unique needs is critical to ensuring that the state is able to uphold both public safety and public health.
In April, Justice Reinvestment behavioral health-related recommendations were added to the House Committee on Corrections and Institutions’ amendment to SB 338. These recommendations require DOC to report to the Justice Reinvestment oversight committee on existing gaps and opportunities to strengthen policies and practices in identifying behavioral health needs among people within DOC, as well as sharing appropriate behavioral health information for the purposes of case planning between DOC reentry staff, DOC’s private health contractor, supervision officers and community providers. CSG Justice Center staff continued to monitor whether Vermont legislative leadership decide to appropriate Justice Reinvestment II funds, including a reentry housing appropriation, and in May, the House Corrections and Institutions Committee approved SB 338 with the transitional housing appropriation.
Update: None.
Analysis Area 5: Evaluate Vermont’s data systems and capacities and identify sustainable opportunities to help policymakers access information they require to make safe and critical policy decisions.
Background: When Vermont first led JRI in 2007, the CSG Justice Center provided the state with new and critical analyses of corrections populations that continue to inform decision-making related to supervision best practices and other policies. However, since then the state has encountered data challenges, including limited staff within DOC dedicated to research and data analysis and siloed data collection and reporting across state agencies that prevent a more comprehensive understanding of the whole system. The Vermont DOC has migrated to a new case management system in recent years, and while basic analytics have been sustained, it is far more difficult for DOC staff to conduct in-depth research projects that require custom case-level data exports. As a result, key public safety and system measures, such as supervision violations and revocations, remain difficult to access and analyze. As mentioned earlier, Vermont is unable to even produce a prison population projection, which would help inform policymaking and future planning. Instead, the state is only able to look back at projections that were produced during the first JRI effort, which do not reflect new pressures and realities associated with the opioid crisis and other systemic drivers.
Update: In SB 338, the Phase II working group is tasked with researching Vermont’s data systems and capacities and making recommendations to the legislature in 2021.
Other Updates:
Both Senate and House leadership continue to prioritize SB 338. Three Justice Reinvestment II Working group members, Senate Judiciary Chair, House Corrections and Institutions Chair and House Judiciary Chair, dedicated hearings to the Justice Reinvestment legislation in May. CSG Justice Center staff have testified in the Senate Judiciary, House Judiciary and House Correction and Institutions Committees to provide members background on the justice reinvestment recommendations. The House Corrections and Institutions Committee incorporated the House Judiciary suggestions into an amendment to SB 338 and voted unanimously to approve the bill. SB 338 will move to the House Appropriations Committee in early June. House leadership is working closely with Senate leadership to avoid the need for a conference committee for the bill, however, the amendments made to the bill by the House Judiciary may require a conference committee.
Although legislative leadership have reiterated strong interest in funding community-based services to help with implementation, existing state budgets and understanding revenue forecasting in light of COVID-19 challenges is still a concern.

CSG Justice Center leadership have also been in touch with DOC leadership, including interim Commissioner. Recognizing that DOC’s primary focus is on keeping the people who are incarcerated and working in their correctional facilities safe, DOC leadership continues to also track justice reinvestment legislation and testify in committee hearings. DOC interim Commissioner has also announced that they will stay onboard with DOC until the end of the year. He should be available as a resource for the Phase II team.