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Analysis Area 1: Analyze crime trends, including recent increases in all categories of violent crime, to help the state understand the impacts of these trends on the prison and jail populations, as well as other parts of the criminal justice system.
Background: Despite having lower crime rates than most other states, Vermont’s crime rates have been rising in recent years. Vermont’s 2017 property and violent crime rates were both second lowest nationally, but between 2007 and 2017, the violent crime rate increased 33 percent, which was the fourth-largest increase among states. Although this increase represents a modest rise in the volume of crimes (less than 400 additional reported violent crimes, driven by increasing aggravated assault and rape totals), it does indicate a concerning trend. Due to data analytic limitations, Vermont is not able to determine the extent to which these increases in violent crime may drive prison populations in the near and long term, as well as their impact on other areas, including law enforcement and victim services.

During the first working group presentation in August, CSG Justice Center staff presented national arrest and crime reporting data. While Vermont’s violent crime rate rose between 2007 and 2017, the state’s property crime rate dropped by more than a third, falling in all categories. National arrest data indicate an overall decline in drug arrests across the state, but analysis of state-level data will provide more information. Working group members noted that decriminalization of marijuana likely contributed to the decline in drug arrests and expressed interest in looking more closely at certain types of violent offenses, especially domestic violence offenses.

Update: It was expected that Justice Reinvestment appropriations would include $400K to strengthen and sustain the domestic violence programming that is currently a fee-for-service model. Whether Vermont will be able to appropriate any funding for Justice Reinvestment II is currently unclear; state revenues will take a significant hit due to COVID-19.

However, state leadership and the media have been focused on an uptick in 911 and service calls related to domestic violence. CSG Justice Center staff testified in a late March Senate Judiciary hearing that addressed the rise in domestic violence and how existing services and supports are responding.
Analysis Area 2: Analyze and evaluate the effectiveness of community supervision to understand the causes of recidivism and technical violations that result in jail and prison admissions and identify possible alternatives to incarceration for violation sanctions.
Background: Vermont’s probation and parole populations have decreased considerably since the state first engaged in JRI in 2007. The probation population has fallen 33 percent, from 6,862 people in 2008 to 4,570 in 2018, and the parole population has decreased 20 percent, from 1,049 people in 2008 to 840 in 2018. Although Vermont has a history of stable recidivism rates (the three-year return-to-prison rate), the recidivism rate slowly and steadily increased between 2010 and 2015, rising from 43 to 52 percent, respectively, (for cohorts released between 2010 and 2015). However, with limited data analytic capabilities, the state is not currently able to identify more refined metrics of recidivism and revocations, including how many people on probation are revoked to jail or prison, for what types of violations, and for how long.
Update: HB 760, which includes language requiring the Department of Corrections (DOC) to report back to the legislature on the use of graduated sanction responses for people on community supervision, was passed and signed into law on March 4. The bill was part of a broader package for making adjustments to state appropriations. SB 338, which contains the bulk of the supervision-related recommendations, will be heard in the House Committee on Corrections and Institutions in early April. As state leadership navigates COVID-19, Senator and Representative (Justice Reinvestment II legislative champions) have expressed interest in trying to find funding to help with implementation. CSG Justice Center staff are continuing conversations with the DOC regarding the possibility of an appropriation to expand community-based risk-reduction programming, one of the key Justice Reinvestment recommendations.
Analysis Area 3: Assist the state with developing a DOC population projection to inform Vermont lawmakers’ discussions on how to ensure that limited prison space is prioritized for people who are convicted of the most serious offenses.
Background: Vermont’s corrections system is unified, and DOC is responsible for all pretrial, sentenced, and supervision (probation and parole) populations. As a result of JRI and other changes in policy and practice, the state’s corrections populations have largely decreased over the past decade. Between 2008 and 2018, the state incarceration population decreased 16 percent, from 2,053 to 1,724 people. However, during the same period, the state’s pretrial population increased 30 percent.
In FY2018, Vermont’s prisons were operating at 138 percent of capacity: 1,513 people were being housed across 7 prison facilities with a total design capacity of 1,100 beds, and approximately 230 people were serving Vermont DOC sentences out of state. Vermont’s correctional facility system is aging, and five of the seven facilities are in need of either replacement or significant maintenance improvements. In particular, the DOC is struggling to deliver appropriate and costly health care services—including mental health and addiction treatment—to an incarcerated population that is spread across several small facilities.
Vermont leaders are interested in ensuring that jail and prison space remain prioritized and available for people convicted or charged with serious offenses, but without more information about trends and drivers behind crime increases and revocations to prison among people on supervision, the state cannot reliably achieve such public safety-focused corrections planning.

Update: None.
Analysis Area 4: Assess the state’s response to people under correctional control with behavioral health needs, particularly opioid addiction, and identify opportunities for improving treatment access and quality.
Background: Vermont has been hard hit by the opioid crisis. Between 2007 and 2017, Vermont’s drug overdose death rates increased 115 percent, from 10.8 deaths per 100,000 residents to 23.2 per 100,000 residents. Deaths due to opioid-related overdoses are rising each year, from 56 deaths in 2011 to 110 deaths in 2018—a 96-percent increase. Understanding the prevalence of opioid use and addiction among people in Vermont’s criminal justice system and ensuring that they receive access to withdrawal management, treatment, and recovery services tailored to their unique needs is critical to ensuring that the state is able to uphold both public safety and public health.
Update: The Justice Reinvestment housing recommendations that were part of HB 760, the budget adjustment bill, were passed in early March. The bill directs the DOC to implement a homeless screening tool to better understand and communicate the housing needs of their population and encourages relevant departments to identify shared clients through a data match of corrections, homeless management information system, and Medicaid data. Housing is an important reentry support, particularly for people struggling with behavioral health needs.
Senator (Judiciary Chair), Representative (Corrections and Institutions Chair), and Representative (Corrections and Institutions Vice Chair) are interested in adding several of the Justice Reinvestment behavioral health policy options to SB 338, particularly those focused on improving the screening and assessment of people in DOC custody, as well as the policy options focused on improving behavioral health information sharing and care coordination. It is currently unknown whether there will be Justice Reinvestment II appropriations, and whether a portion of those appropriations would be dedicated to reentry housing.
Analysis Area 5: Evaluate Vermont’s data systems and capacities and identify sustainable opportunities to help policymakers access information they require to make safe and critical policy decisions.
Background: When Vermont first led JRI in 2007, the CSG Justice Center provided the state with new and critical analyses of corrections populations that continue to inform decision-making related to supervision best practices and other policies. However, since then the state has encountered data challenges, including limited staff within DOC dedicated to research and data analysis and siloed data collection and reporting across state agencies that prevent a more comprehensive understanding of the whole system. The Vermont DOC has migrated to a new case management system in recent years, and while basic analytics have been sustained, it is far more difficult for DOC staff to conduct in-depth research projects that require custom case-level data exports. As a result, key public safety and system measures, such as supervision violations and revocations, remain difficult to access and analyze. As mentioned earlier, Vermont is unable to even produce a prison population projection, which would help inform policymaking and future planning. Instead, the state is only able to look back at projections that were produced during the first JRI effort, which do not reflect new pressures and realities associated with the opioid crisis and other systemic drivers.
Update: The state legislature is considering whether there will be Justice Reinvestment II appropriations, though it is unclear whether any of the possible investment would be dedicated to DOC’s analytic staff capacity.
Other Updates:
In response to COVID-19, floor votes in the legislature have been reserved for emergency-related legislation, and committee hearings are being conducted remotely—though, thus far, only testimony and general hearings are occurring. It has not yet been decided whether committees will vote remotely or wait until they can convene in person to do so. Despite all of this chaos, CSG Justice Center staff are receiving positive communication from legislative champions on Justice Reinvestment II legislation. Receiving Phase II implementation support is important to Representative (Corrections and Institutions Chair and Justice Reinvestment II working group member) and Senator (Judiciary Chair and Justice Reinvestment II working group member), and there will be several days of hearings and testimony in early April regarding SB 338 to keep the legislation moving.
Initially, SB 338 included $2M in appropriations, with $1M reserved for reentry housing, $400K for sustaining and expanding domestic violence programming, and $600K for expanding risk-reduction programming. Funding is currently up in the air because state leadership need to support emergency efforts related to COVID-19 and know that stay-at-home orders will significantly impact state revenue. That said, both Senator Sears and Representative Emmons have reiterated strong interest in funding community-based services to help with implementation and are exploring what is possible.