Analysis Area 1: Analyze crime trends, including recent increases in all categories of violent crime, to help the state understand the impacts of these trends on the prison and jail populations, as well as other parts of the criminal justice system.
Background: Despite having lower crime rates than most other states, Vermont’s crime rates have been rising in recent years. Vermont’s 2017 property and violent crime rates were both second lowest nationally, but between 2007 and 2017, the violent crime rate increased 33 percent, which was the fourth-largest increase among states. Although this increase represents a modest rise in the volume of crimes (less than 400 additional reported violent crimes, driven by increasing aggravated assault and rape totals), it does indicate a concerning trend. Due to data analytic limitations, Vermont is not able to determine the extent to which these increases in violent crime may drive prison populations in the near and long term, as well as their impact on other areas, including law enforcement and victim services.
During the first working group presentation in August, CSG Justice Center staff presented national arrest and crime reporting data. While Vermont’s violent crime rate rose between 2007 and 2017, the state’s property crime rate dropped by more than a third, falling in all categories. National arrest data indicate an overall decline in drug arrests across the state, but analysis of state-level data will provide more information. Working group members noted that decriminalization of marijuana likely contributed to the decline in drug arrests and expressed interest in looking more closely at certain types of violent offenses, especially domestic violence offenses.
Update: In January’s final working group presentation, CSG Justice Center staff presented a policy option that would strengthen and sustain the current domestic violence programming that is currently a fee-for-service model.
Analysis Area 2: Analyze and evaluate the effectiveness of community supervision to understand the causes of recidivism and technical violations that result in jail and prison admissions and identify possible alternatives to incarceration for violation sanctions.
Background: Vermont’s probation and parole populations have decreased considerably since the state first engaged in JRI in 2007. The probation population has fallen 33 percent, from 6,862 people in 2008 to 4,570 in 2018, and the parole population has decreased 20 percent, from 1,049 people in 2008 to 840 in 2018. Although Vermont has a history of stable recidivism rates (the three-year return-to-prison rate), the recidivism rate slowly and steadily increased between 2010 and 2015, rising from 43 to 52 percent, respectively, (for cohorts released between 2010 and 2015). However, with limited data analytic capabilities, the state is not currently able to identify more refined metrics of recidivism and revocations, including how many people on probation are revoked to jail or prison, for what types of violations, and for how long.
Update: In the January working group meeting, CSG Justice Center staff presented policy options to reduce recidivism and revocations to prison for people who are failing on community supervision. This includes restructuring and simplifying the state’s complicated furlough system, establishing presumptive parole for an initial small population that would allow the Parole Board and other entities to adjust to this system change, as well as strengthening the effectiveness of incentive and graduated sanction violation responses for people on community supervision. Also, CSG Justice Center staff recommended that the Department of Corrections recidivism-reduction programming be expanded to all people who have medium to high criminogenic risk scores.
Analysis Area 3: Assist the state with developing a DOC population projection to inform Vermont lawmakers’ discussions on how to ensure that limited prison space is prioritized for people who are convicted of the most serious offenses.
Background: Vermont’s corrections system is unified, and DOC is responsible for all pretrial, sentenced, and supervision (probation and parole) populations. As a result of JRI and other changes in policy and practice, the state’s corrections populations have largely decreased over the past decade. Between 2008 and 2018, the state incarceration population decreased 16 percent, from 2,053 to 1,724 people. However, during the same period, the state’s pretrial population increased 30 percent.
In FY2018, Vermont’s prisons were operating at 138 percent of capacity: 1,513 people were being housed across 7 prison facilities with a total design capacity of 1,100 beds, and approximately 230 people were serving Vermont DOC sentences out of state. Vermont’s correctional facility system is aging, and five of the seven facilities are in need of either replacement or significant maintenance improvements. In particular, the DOC is struggling to deliver appropriate and costly health care services—including mental health and addiction treatment—to an incarcerated population that is spread across several small facilities.
Vermont leaders are interested in ensuring that jail and prison space remain prioritized and available for people convicted or charged with serious offenses, but without more information about trends and drivers behind crime increases and revocations to prison among people on supervision, the state cannot reliably achieve such public safety-focused corrections planning.
Update: CSG Justice Center staff developed impact estimates for the proposed policy options, and Vermont will need to develop their own population forecasts to compare with the impact estimates.
Analysis Area 4: Assess the state’s response to people under correctional control with behavioral health needs, particularly opioid addiction, and identify opportunities for improving treatment access and quality.
Background: Vermont has been hard hit by the opioid crisis. Between 2007 and 2017, Vermont’s drug overdose death rates increased 115 percent, from 10.8 deaths per 100,000 residents to 23.2 per 100,000 residents. Deaths due to opioid-related overdoses are rising each year, from 56 deaths in 2011 to 110 deaths in 2018—a 96-percent increase. Understanding the prevalence of opioid use and addiction among people in Vermont’s criminal justice system and ensuring that they receive access to withdrawal management, treatment, and recovery services tailored to their unique needs is critical to ensuring that the state is able to uphold both public safety and public health.
Update: In the January working group presentation, CSG Justice Center staff presented policy options to develop more robust identification of behavioral health challenges among people within the criminal justice system, and strengthen connections to community-based treatment for people with mental illnesses, substance addictions, and co-occurring disorders who move through the corrections system. CSG Justice Center staff also presented policy options on assessing and quantifying reentry housing needs for corrections populations to inform DOC transitional housing budget priorities, as well as Agency of Human Services cross-departmental planning and statewide permanent supportive housing discussions.
Analysis Area 5: Evaluate Vermont’s data systems and capacities and identify sustainable opportunities to help policymakers access information they require to make safe and critical policy decisions.
Background: When Vermont first led JRI in 2007, the CSG Justice Center provided the state with new and critical analyses of corrections populations that continue to inform decision-making related to supervision best practices and other policies. However, since then the state has encountered data challenges, including limited staff within DOC dedicated to research and data analysis and siloed data collection and reporting across state agencies that prevent a more comprehensive understanding of the whole system. The Vermont DOC has migrated to a new case management system in recent years, and while basic analytics have been sustained, it is far more difficult for DOC staff to conduct in-depth research projects that require custom case-level data exports. As a result, key public safety and system measures, such as supervision violations and revocations, remain difficult to access and analyze. As mentioned earlier, Vermont is unable to even produce a prison population projection, which would help inform policymaking and future planning. Instead, the state is only able to look back at projections that were produced during the first JRI effort, which do not reflect new pressures and realities associated with the opioid crisis and other systemic drivers.
Update: In the January working group presentation, CSG Justice Center staff presented policy options related to improving data and reporting to better inform decision-making. Investing in and strengthening DOC’s analytical staff capacity will provide lawmakers and the public with necessary information to make informed policy decisions. CSG Justice Center staff also proposed that the state explore opportunities to partner with other data researchers, including academics, to better analyze and reduce racial disparities in the criminal justice system.
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• Meeting with Senator (Judiciary Chair and Working Group Member), Senator (Member of Judiciary and Working Group Member), Representative (Corrections & Institutions Committee and Working Group member) and Representative (Judiciary Chair and Working Group member) about Justice Reinvestment II policy options.
• Meeting with Field Services Director (Department of Corrections), Deputy Commissioner (Vermont Department of Corrections), Chair (Parole Board) and Executive Director (Vermont Parole Board) to discuss policy options related to furlough and presumptive parole.
• Meeting with Senator (Judiciary Chair and Working Group member) and Senate President to discuss media and the Justice Reinvestment II policy options.
• Meeting with Interim Commissioner (Department of Corrections) to discuss the final Justice Reinvestment II Working Group meeting.
• Fifth and final meeting of the Justice Reinvestment II Working Group to discuss major findings and policy options.
• Information session with local media to provide information about the final findings and policy options presented at the Justice Reinvestment II Working Group meeting.
• Meeting with Vermont State Legislature to review Justice Reinvestment II policy options following the last working group meeting.
• Meeting with the Joint House Judiciary and House Corrections & Institutions Committees to present the Justice Reinvestment II policy options
• Meeting with the Senate Appropriations Committee to present the Justice Reinvestment II policy options.
• Meeting with the Senate Judiciary Committee to present the Justice Reinvestment II policy options.
• Meeting with the Senate Judiciary Committee to discuss the Justice Reinvestment II policy options.
• Meeting with Vermont State Legislature, Field Services Director (Department of Corrections), and Executive Director (Vermont Parole Board) to discuss presumptive parole policy options.
• Senate Judiciary committee hearing to discuss the Justice Reinvestment II policy options.
• Senate Judiciary committee hearing to discuss the Justice Reinvestment II policy options.
Phone Calls:
• 1/3: Call with Senator (Judiciary Chair and Working Group member), Secretary (Agency of Human Services), Deputy Commissioner (Department of Corrections), and Director of Health Care Reform (Agency of Human Services) to discuss behavioral health and community supervision challenges.
• 1/6: Call with Senator (Judiciary Chair and Working Group member) and Vermont State Legislature to discuss Justice Reinvestment II policy options.
• 1/8: Call with Director of Policy and Program Integration (Agency of Human Services), Administrative Services Director (Department of Corrections), Restorative and Community Justice Executive (Department of Corrections), Housing Administrator (Department of Corrections), and New England Homeless Management Information System [HMIS] Manager (Institute for Community Alliances) to discuss the possibility of matching corrections data to HMIS data to quantify people who are utilizing both corrections and homeless resources.
• 1/9: Call with Senator (Judiciary Chair and Working Group member), and Vermont State Legislature to discuss the Justice Reinvestment II policy options.
• 1/9: Call with Vermont House Committee on Corrections and Institutions to present the Justice Reinvestment II findings.
• 1/10: Call with Legal Counsel (Governor’s Office), Policy Director (Governor’s Office) and Racial Equity Director (Governor’s Office) to discuss the Justice Reinvestment II policy options and the governor’s priorities.
• 1/10: Call with Vermont House Judiciary Committee to present the Justice Reinvestment II findings.
• 1/13: Call with Executive Director (Bennington Center for Restorative Justice) to learn about a well-known community justice center that is a one-stop-shop for alternative community justice supports and services in their community.
• 1/14: Call with Administrative Services Director (Department of Corrections), and Deputy Commissioner (Department of Corrections) to discuss the Justice Reinvestment policy options.
• 1/14: Call with Vermont House Judiciary Committee to present the Justice Reinvestment II findings.
• 1/14: Call with Executive Director (Vermont Parole Board) and Chair (Vermont Parole Board) to discuss Justice Reinvestment II policy options and impacts.
• 1/15: Call with Director of Health Care Reform, Vermont Agency of Human Services) to discuss behavioral health needs for people in the criminal justice system.
• 1/16: Call with Commissioner (Vermont Department of Public Safety) to discuss the Justice Reinvestment II policy options.
• 1/16: Call with Advocacy Director (Vermont ACLU) to discuss the Justice Reinvestment II policy options.
• 1/16: Call with Executive Director (The Network Against Domestic and Sexual Violence) and Deputy Director (The Network Against Domestic and Sexual Violence) to discuss the Justice Reinvestment II policy options, particularly ones related to community-based domestic violence programming.
• 1/16: Call with Deputy Commissioner (Vermont Department of Health) and Clinical Services Manager and State Opioid Treatment Authority (Vermont Department of Health) to discuss the Justice Reinvestment II policy options.
• 1/16: Call with Department of State Attorneys and Sheriffs to discuss Justice Reinvestment II policy options.
• 1/17: Call with Chief Justice (Judiciary and Working Group Chair), Administrative Judge (Judiciary), and Court Administrator (Judiciary) to discuss the Justice Reinvestment II policy options.
• 1/17: Call with Interim Commissioner (Department of Corrections), Deputy Commissioner (Department of Corrections), and Administrative Services Director (Department of Corrections) to introduce Commissioner to the Justice Reinvestment project.
• 1/17: Call with Commissioner (Department of Mental Health) and Deputy Commissioner (Vermont Department of Mental Health) to discuss Justice Reinvestment II policy options.
• 1/17: Call with Vermont Defender General to discuss Justice Reinvestment II policy options.
• 1/17: Call with Assistant Attorney General (State Attorney’s Office) to discuss Justice Reinvestment II policy options.
• 1/17: Call with Legal Counsel (Governor’s Office) and Racial Equity Director (Governor’s Office) to discuss Justice Reinvestment II policy options.
• 1/21: Call with Executive Director (Lamoille Restorative Center) to learn about a well-known community justice center that is a one-stop-shop for alternative community justice supports and services in their community.
• 1/23: Call with Vermont State Legislature to discuss the Justice Reinvestment II policy options.
• 1/28: Call with Interim Commissioner (Department of Corrections) and Director of Field Services (Vermont Department of Corrections) to talk about furlough and parole Justice Reinvestment policy options.
• 1/28: Call with Chair (Vermont Racial Disparities Panel) to discuss Justice Reinvestment II policy options.
• 1/28: Call with Field Representative (US Senator Leahy’s office) to discuss federal grants and funding that Vermont and other states may be eligible for.
• 1/28: Call with Executive Director (Vermont Parole Board) to discuss parole options related to the Justice Reinvestment policy options.
• 1/28: Call with Director of Policy and Program Integration (Agency of Human Services) to discuss housing policy options.
Research Monthly Status
CSG Justice Center research staff’s engagement with the Vermont Justice Reinvestment project in January was focused first on final PowerPoint development for the January 22 working group presentation and then on final policy option development and impact analysis. As the January 22 presentation approached, final analyses and visualizations were completed for policy options on DOC supervision, presumptive parole, strengthening the state’s good time policy, improving data and reporting, improving domestic violence and risk-reduction programming, and improving connecting the DOC population with behavioral health and housing needs. CSG Justice Center staff also created an Excel-based impact model of the policy package to include in the January presentation. CSG Justice Center staff delivered a draft of the presentation to funders and key stakeholders and incorporated their feedback before the presentation was delivered to the working group. Later that week, the CSG Justice Center team circled back with Brynn Hare to flesh out more details about current policy options and also gave testimony before Senate Judiciary Committee, Senate Appropriations Committee, House Judiciary Committee, and House Committee on Corrections.
- 1/2–1/3 Activity
Further development of draft policies and continued stakeholder engagement to gather input and feedback. CSG Justice Center staff continued to develop an Excel-based impact model of the policy package showing prison bed reduction and averted costs.
- 1/6–1/10 Activity
Final changes to presentation completed including feedback from stakeholders, CSG Justice Center leadership, CSG Justice Center Communications, and BJA.
- 1/13–1/17 Activity
Dialed in to the Justice Reinvestment Working Group presentation. Team calls to discuss policy options.
- 1/20–1/24 Activity
CSG Justice Center staff traveled to Vermont to meet with stakeholders, attend the final working group presentation, and appear before House and Senate Committees. Justice Reinvestment II bill draft introduced in the Senate Judiciary.
- 1/27–1/31 Activity
CSG Justice Center staff on site at the State House observing hearings and meeting with stakeholders as bill develops.
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